Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Mid-Terms Update: Senate

Here's an update:

The Dems need 6 wins to take back the Senate.

Which, of course, means not one Dem incumbent can lose. The only one in danger of doing so, Robert Menendez in NJ, appears to have pulled decisively ahead of his Republcian challenger. This is probably due to the tough ads saying Kean would be a close ally for George Bush. Menendez is one of the few Dems who voted against the Iraq war, and he appears to be getting a lot of mileage out of that.

In PA, OH, and RI, the Republican incumbents are toast. (Which is a shame for an affable moderate like Linc Chaffee, though I'm not planning on shedding too many tears for Senator Man-On-Dog 'Sanatorium' or Mike DeWine of Ohio).

Now, new Likely Voter polls (which are more accurate than Registered Voter polls) indicate that Harold Ford and Jim Webb have pulled ahead in TN and VA, respectively. Woo-hoo!!

If these results hold, that would leave one final hurdle: the Dems must win one out of the following two races:

In Montana, Tester (D) leads Burns (R), but within the margin of error: 46 to 43 in one likely voter poll, 48 to 46 in another.

And in MO, Clare McCaskill remains tied with Republcian incumbent Jim Talent, 48-48.

Looks like these two will be the up-all-night nail-biters.


Anonymous Anonymous said...




11/1/06, 4:46 PM  
Blogger bj said...

what polls are you looking at???? FORD in Tenn looks to be losing ground every day, and "LIKELY VOTERS" polls are showing him anywhere from 2-8 points behind - NOT a good thing!

11/2/06, 9:55 AM  
Blogger Scott said...

I got them off DailyKos. I think they were MSNBC/Wall St Journal.

But I have seen the polls you're talking about since then, and am much troubled by them.

11/2/06, 2:46 PM  
Blogger Scott said...

Here's an update for you, Bri: DSCC internal polling shows Ford up by 6 among likely voters -- that's as of today, 11/3.

Rasmussen and NRSC polling(again, as of today) both show the race tied.

11/3/06, 4:48 PM  
Blogger Scott said...

Oh, here's the link: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/11/3/151946/330

11/3/06, 4:49 PM  

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