Saturday, January 20, 2007

Scenarios

There's a lot of talk that Bush's approval rating simply can't fall much lower than its current 30%. The idea is that those 3 in 10 people are impervious to reason. Some of them would never oppose a Republican president during wartime. Some think that no matter what he does, it's what The Lord wants him to do. (God help us.)

Maybe I'm an optimist, but I don' t think the absolute floor of support is 30%. My guess is that those people don't account for more than 15-20%.

I can certainly imagine scenarios where Bush's approval rating would fall below 30. Hell, I can imagine scenarios where his administration doesn't survive.

What the hell is he possibly going to talk about in the State of the Union that people will buy? I saw some speculation on Matthews or Olberman last night that he'd focus on domestic policy -- Can you imagine if he says virtually nothing about Iraq?? It would be the elephant in the room (like, literally).

And iif he's seen as threatening Iran... he could end up with the first negative bounce in the history of SOTU opinion polls. (30 becomes 27.)

There's speculation that more Republicans are leaning toward signing a modified version of Biden and Hagel's resolution, but want to wait until after the President has had a chance to make his case for escalation to the American people (course, he's already made his case--and the people didn't like what they heard... but, hey, the SOTU is a larger soapbox, and who can blame the Republican moderates for being timid about breaking with the leader of their party?).

Whether Biden-Hagel draws many more Republican co-sponsors or not, Bush won't listen to a nonbinding resolution. He only rarely listens to binding ones. That could peel off another percentage point (27 to 26).

Next would be a group of Republican moderates going to The White Hosue to tell the President "it's over" -- I think it's reasonable to conclude that the likes of Hagel and Brownback have had that conversation already, and possibly not just amongst themselves. If that went forward, Bush would go down again... 24 or 25% at that point... but remember, each point loss represents the President alienating thousands of hardcore Republcians.

There are no moderates among the 30% who still support him.

If he actually bombs Iran, if he--god forbid--starts a third war, I think the bottom falls out. He's got 15-18% support, 20% if he's lucky. But, again, those people would defend him if he nuked Disney World.

I used to think attacking Iran was ridiculous, a conspiracy theory of the far left -- Beyond the pale, even for him. But now... He dispatches 2 carrier groups, puts an Admiral--a former pilot--in charge of CentCom.

It doesn't take a genius, or a conspiracy theorist, to see that they're preparing for a different kind of war, and I just can't see that being about Iraq. Iraq doesn't have a navy or air force... or good targets for aerial bombardment. But Iran has all three.

It makes you wonder if those 21,500 troops are about Iraq.

I'm getting a strong "double down" vibe from Bush, and it's pretty scary. Like he thinks he can move the game, that a new war will result in a new rally-round-the-flag (read: rally-round-the-*president*) effect.

I think instead it would result in a lightning speed, bipartisan impeachment.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bush has no credibility. He is a stark mad on his best days and a raving lunatic at all other times. I won't even listen to his SOTU. I stopped beliving him about the time he invaded Iraq. I tuned him completely out after the fiasco in New Orleans. I'm just waiting for his time as president to end so that we can get a responsible administration to represent America.

1/20/07, 5:33 PM  

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